A lava flow simulation experience oriented to disaster risk reduction, early warning systems and response during the 2021 volcanic eruption in Cumbre Vieja, La Palma

Abstract

Lava flows are one of the hazards involved in a volcanic eruption, and although they rarely cause the loss of human life, they are highly destructive in terms of damage to property and economic activity. Therefore, the management of volcanic disasters requires fast and accurate information on the behaviour and evolution of the flows, mainly related to their extension, displacement, and trajectory. This was the case during the disaster linked to the volcanic event that occurred on the island of La Palma in the Cumbre Vieja area at the end of 2021, which lasted eighty-five days. This paper describes part of the work performed by many different groups to provide predictive information aimed at feeding the early warning system set up during the disaster. This case shows the experience in the use of a probabilistic simulation algorithm implemented in the Q-LavHA plugin for the QGIS software, which is both easily accessible and applicable, to analyze its features in detail, as well as its predictive capacity. The results show that the model can efficiently and quickly satisfy the demand for this type of information, and its high similarity value is also validated by the Kappa index.