RT info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
T1 Essays on transport economics CO2 emissions, values of travel time and inertia effect
A1 Marrero Llinares, Ángel Simón
K1 Ciencias económicas
K1 Sector de transportes y comunicaciones
K1 Sector de la energía
AB ABSTRACT.  Transport is a strategic sector for the economy and has a strong impact on economic growth and welfare,but also produces several negative externalities due to, among other causes, the excessive use of cars. Boththe economic impact and the negative externalities associated with transport have generated an increasedinterest among researchers in the field of transport economics. In order to evaluate the balance betweenpositive and negative effects of transport, policy evaluation studies are needed. This thesis focuses on theapplication of novel methods in transport demand analysis which are useful in the evaluation of transportpolicies. The thesis is divided in four chapters which contribute to the scientific development of the field.Chapter 1 focuses on the aggregated transport demand. Using alternative approaches, we examine theconcepts of β, σ and club convergence in road transport CO2 emissions per capita of a sample of 23European Union countries over the period 1990-2014. We also estimate dynamic panel data models withinteraction terms in order to explain the factors determining the evolution of the emissions and the effectof a set of variables on the speed of convergence. Our results show, first, a reduction in the disparities ofemission levels, and a conditional convergence process during the period under study; second, the evidencethat this process is conditioned by factors such as economic activity, fuel price or annual average distancetravelled by cars. Further, some of these variables appear to have a significant effect on the speed ofconvergence, a result that may have significant implications for the cross-country impact of the Europeanpolicies on climate change currently in place.The next three chapters focus on the disaggregate transport demand, specifically on the individual travelmode choice, by using different applications of discrete choice models. We conduct surveys on RevealedPreferences (RP) and Stated Preferences (SP) and estimate different specifications of discrete choice models.The case study of Chapters 2 and 3 is a new tramline implementation in Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain)where we analyse how the individual preferences change with the introduction of the new mode. We builda novel panel data with information about transport choices of the same group of individuals (collegestudents). Just before the implementation of the tramline, we collect information about RP of transportmode choices and about SP in a simulated scenario with the tram as a hypothetical alternative. Two yearsafter the tram started operating, we gather information about RP to ascertain the impact of the new tramlinein the student mobility patterns. With this information, we estimate several panel mixed logit models witherror components.The main objective of Chapter 2 is to evaluate the effect of using partial information on the estimation ofthe Values of Travel Time Savings (VTTS). We conclude that the estimation of the VTTS changes whencomparing the results obtained with models that only consider information before or after the tramlineimplementation with that obtained with a panel data approach using all the information simultaneously.Further, we obtain a better statistical fit to data and, according to previous evidence in our study context,more reasonable values of travel time using a panel data approach. Our results suggest that when a newtransport mode is implemented, the VTTS obtained with models than only consider prior or later periodsof time can be underestimated and hence lead to wrong valuations of the benefits associated with the newalternative, even when stated preferences are used to anticipate changes in the user preferences.The purpose of Chapter 3 is to analyse the influence of past behaviour on the current transport modechoices. To do this, we examine the inertia effect, a factor usually not considered in discrete choice modelsof travel demand. Around the implementation of new transport modes, the majority of studies on inertiahave relied on combining RP and SP obtained prior to the implementation and measuring the inertia as theeffect that the real choices(RP) have on the choices in the hypothetical scenarios (SP). In our case, we finda significant inertia effect only between the previous and posterior implementation RP observations, whichincreases the probability of choosing the car once the tram starts running. However, we do not find inertiaeffect on the previous implementation RP-SP information, hence taking into account only this informationmight have led to wrong conclusions about the effect of the transport policy. Furthermore, we comparemodels with and without inertia and conclude that the models with inertia provide better fit to data, smaller direct car choice elasticities and increasing asymmetric effects between the car and public transport crosschoice elasticities. Lastly, Chapter 4 adopts a novel methodological approach to estimate the recreational value of a naturalsite. To calculate this value, estimations of the visitor values of travel time are needed. In the recreationaldemand literature, the most common approach for the calculation of the values of travel time has been theuse of different proportions of the wage rate. However, criticisms of this method abound because in arecreational trip the relevant measure is the opportunity cost of leisure time rather than work time. In thischapter, we obtain the value of travel time through the trade-off between time and money considered bythe tourist visitors when choosing the transport mode to access the natural site, and we present the firstcalculation of the recreational value of the Teide National Park. Specifically, using a revealed preferencesurvey, we estimate mixed logit models accounting for random preference heterogeneity, derive travel timevalues and incorporate them into a zonal travel cost model. This approach allows us to estimate differenttime values depending on transport mode and stage of the trip and shows that the use of discrete choicemodels instead of the wage rate approach has a strong impact on the recreational value calculated.
YR 2019
FD 2019
LK http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/24086
UL http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/24086
LA en
DS Repositorio institucional de la Universidad de La Laguna
RD 22-nov-2024