RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 An approach for evaluating the stochastic behaviour of wave energy converters
A1 Marichal Plasencia, Graciliano Nicolás
A1 Avila, Deivis
A1 Quiza, Ramón
K1 Wave energy
K1 Bivariate Weibull distributions
K1 Mixture density networks
K1 Offshore and nearshore points
K1 Wave energy converter
AB Due to their random nature, obtaining reliable models that can describe the behaviour of waves is far fromsimple. This paper presents an approach for forecasting the capabilities of wave energy converters (WECs) fortwo points, one of them located offshore and the other nearshore. Bivariate Weibull distributions were fittedfrom spectral significant wave height and mean peak period data. Then, models relating the parameters of thesedistributions to the day of the year were obtained using mixture density networks, which give the distributionof the predicted variables instead of their expected value. Energy conversion capabilities were forecasted bygenerating a set of random values for the bivariate Weibull coefficients from the modelled distributions forthe period in question. Predicted cumulative distributions for spectral significant wave heights and mean peakperiods were then combined with the matrix of the converter in question, allowing the corresponding energyconversion capability to be computed. The proposed method was validated by considering data from the lastthree years, which were not used to train the models. The resulting predictions were consistent not only withthe expected seasonal behaviour, but also with the expected differences between the offshore and nearshorepoints. It should be also noted that all the validation energy values fall into the forecasted 95% confidenceintervals, showing the effectiveness of the approach.
YR 2022
FD 2022
LK http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/35995
UL http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/35995
LA en
NO DOI:10.1016/J.APOR.2022.103372
DS Repositorio institucional de la Universidad de La Laguna
RD 18-nov-2024