RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article T1 The uneven impact of climate change on drought with elevation in the Canary Islands. A1 González Fernández, Albano José A1 Carrilo, Judith A1 Hernández Barrera, Sara A1 Expósito, Francisco J. A1 Díaz, Juan P. A1 Pérez, Juan C. K1 climate change K1 Canary Islands K1 drought K1 greenhouse gas concentrations AB Climate models project an increase in drought and aridity in many regions in response to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. In areas with complex topography, such as the Canary Islands, elevation gradients may play an important role in future changes. Convection-permitting climate simulations driven by data from three global climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been performed for the Canary Islands. A significant increase in the duration and severity of drought is projected by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099), relative to the recent past (1980–2009), under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. In addition, the percentage of land affected by droughts, on average, would increase considerably, covering up to 96% in the higher elevations, in the business-as-usual scenario. These changes and the increase in aridity are more pronounced at higher altitudes due to a clear dependence of temperature rise as a function of elevation and a substantial decrease in precipitation. SN 2397-3722 YR 2023 FD 2023 LK http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/39233 UL http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/39233 LA en DS Repositorio institucional de la Universidad de La Laguna RD 03-ene-2025