RT info:eu-repo/semantics/article
T1 A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate
A1 Arranz Alonso, Patricia
A1 Sousa, Andreia
A1 Fernandez, Marc
A1 Alves, Filipe
A1 Dinis, Ana
A1 González García, Laura
A1 Morales, Misael
A1 Lettrich, Matthew
A1 Encarnação Coelho, Ricardo
A1 Costa, Hugo
A1 Capela Lourenço, Tiago
A1 Neto Azevedo, José Manuel
A1 Frazão Santos, Catarina
A2 Biología Animal y Edafología y Geología
A2 BIOECOMAC
K1 Climate change
K1 Marine mammals
K1 Macaronesia
K1 Thermal suitability
K1 Expert elicitation
K1 Conservation management
AB Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentallyderivedthermallimits,whichareknowntoberelatedtoobservedlatitudinalranges,havebeenusedto assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators withwide-rangedistribution,likecetaceans. Analternative approach is to elicit expert'sknowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. Wedevelopedandappliedamethodologybasedonexpert-derivedthermalsuitability curvesandprojected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus andZiphiuscavirostris. Conversely,ourresults indicated a decline in thermalsuitabilityfor B.physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobileand large predators, andittests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.
YR 2023
FD 2023
LK http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/40708
UL http://riull.ull.es/xmlui/handle/915/40708
LA en
DS Repositorio institucional de la Universidad de La Laguna
RD 09-nov-2025